If You Believe in Maths, You Believe In Extraterrestrial Life
As you probably know there are 8 planets on our solar system (Pluto was downgraded). That is, 8 planets that gravitate around one star, the Sun. As far as we know, on only one of those plants there is life.
The Sun, in turn, is located inside the Milky Way galaxy. It is estimated that this galaxy contains anywhere from 200 billion up to 400 billion stars.
The Milky Way galaxy, in turn, is located inside our Universe, which is estimated to have over 100 billion galaxies (and that is the observable Universe alone…).
Now, if you put this together, we will get an incredibly large number of stars on the Universe, and even larger estimated number of planets.
If we consider that the average number of stars in one galaxy is 500 billion, we get that the total number of stars in the universe is 100,000,000,000 galaxies times 500,000,000,000 starts, which is equal to 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Spelled, that number is called 50 sextillions.
Now what is the probably of a star becoming a star system, with planets orbiting around it (like on our Solar system)? Scientists agree that this is not a rare occurrence, but still let’s say that only 1 in every 1 million stars become a star system.
Over the Universe, therefore, we would have 50,000,000,000,000,000 star systems (50 quadrillions).
If we assume that, on average, each star system has 2 planets, this would mean 100,000,000,000,000,000 planets on the Universe.
Now we just need to estimate the probability of life emerging spontaneously on any given planet. Even if we say that this probability is again 1 in a billion (which is arguably low), we would get that there about 100,000,000 (100 million) planets on the Universe that are likely to host some form of life.
I don’t know about, but the odds are pretty clear to me. Even if you dispute my assumptions and try to use different numbers, the final outcome is a huge number of planets that are likely to host life nevertheless.
If there is life on planets close to our own Solar system is one question. And the answer might be yes or no. If there are other planets on the whole Universe where there is some kind of life, well, that is a completely different question, and the answer is more than likely yes.
(5 votes, average: 3.6 out of 5)
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without doubt there is alien life
Nice article!
The numbers in the Drake equation are compelling, but one of the most perplexing questions of all time is “Where are they?”, first asked by Enrico Fermi and called the Fermi Paradox. Even the most conservative estimates of the amount of time to fully colonize our entire galaxy, just using current technology, are only 5 to 50 million years. That’s a blink of an eye to a Universe that is billions of years old. If only one other civilization developed in the galaxy before us that cared to explore and colonize, we would expect to find evidence. I believe the answer to why we don’t will truly be profound and unexpected.
If you are interested, I’ve written more on this topic at here.
How many stars have we counted? I’m just curious - have we counted that many stars? Have computers counted them for us? Always I see “estimates” of how many stars are in this galaxy or that one. How can scientists estimate them and then accept that it’s truth. They haven’t seen them. They just estimate based on star density in a given space - that there must be about this many million or billion stars within a galaxy. What kind of science is that when they start thinking of it as fact?
I try to assume nothing when I look at science that way I’m more open to what the real truth could be.
Is there life somewhere else? I think there is - not because of the number of stars - but by the number of reports of ufos that have surfaced. People from all walks of life report them, believe in them. We have some photos that might be real - maybe not. You can’t deny we’ve had a revolution over the last 100 years with regards to electronics. Did we have something as a model for that technology or developed it from scratch? I don’t know - seems logical that it came from somewhere else since the leap from turning on a light bulb with electricity and powering smart missiles based on ships knocking airplanes - or super sonic missiles out of the sky is quite a jump.
It’s interesting to think about the next 100 years. We might find a new energy source that we run through our bodies that counteracts gravity. We might find an intelligent beetle that can interact with us in ways we never dreamed of - maybe it’s smarter than us? Three people out of a team of desert trekkers might wander into a space hole, journey around for 6 years our time and then return later with new technology and answers to the world’s problems. Who knows what will happen.
I think basically - anything goes from this point on. We’re already seeing ‘magic’ that didn’t exist 100 years ago, 50 yrs, even last year. Technology is flying and literally anything is possible. What would this world be like in 1000 years of tech development assuming no wars and only global cooperation?
Wow!
@Chris Haley, how long have homo sapiens been wondering around on Earth? Perhaps they came here before, but went away. That would explain the pyramids as well
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@Vern, mine are rough estimates, but when scientists calculate those they are basing the number on facts and statistics. The number of galaxies, for example, is calculated based on what our most advanced telescopes and other radar technologies can detect.
The number of stars, on the other hand, is based on the statistical average of stars per galaxy that we know.
But yeah yet another indicator would be the UFO reports, though that argument is much more susceptible to controversy than the number of stars one.
As worn out as it may be, The Andromeda Strain touches on this in the world of fiction, basically stating that when broken down, there must be life on other planets. That life, however, when compared to the amount of unicellular organisms, to multi-cellular, to humanoid multi-cellular the life on other planets are statistically unicellular…
Perhaps the real question is rather: Does it matter?
What difference does it ultimately make to us?
Among other things in my past is a period of teaching higher mathematics (I had a double major of math and journalism). One speculation that has been made regarding commumications with beings from another planet, if it ever occurs, will by reason will have to be done in math. It is the universal language. Human beings cannot understand infinity, our minds make us believe that everything has a beginning and an end. This has led to many theories such as the biblical one and the scientific ones such as “the big-bang”. We don’t understand how genius happens like Einstein for example, or those in music like Mozart. Evolution is a slow process,however, in my mind, it is still ongoing.
Until we’ll find evidences, I cannot believe that.